Saturday, March 22, 2008

Why The American Economy Is Just So Much BS

BS, we love(d) you. And look what you almost did to us.

Bear Stearns, who came within an eyelash of taking a big chunk of the financial community down the toilet with it last week, could be just the canary in the coal mine. A couple of months ago, BS was trading at something like $150 a share. Last weekend, the company sold out for two bucks a share, thanks to its heavy leveraging in sub-prime mortgages.

Think of these little factoids and tell me I'm wrong.

The real estate market is little more than five percent of our economy.

The sub-prime market is a fraction of that five percent.

Defaults on sub-prime mortgages are an even smaller fraction.

So if something so insignificant can bring the banking community to its knees, what about all the other weak areas of our economy? Areas of weakness that put us in much greater peril?

The environment: Droughts, floods, crop failures? My oft-mentioned "big one" -- the San Andreas fault line decides to make Las Vegas beachfront property?

Energy: Oil - cost, supply, refining? Or an aging, overtaxed power transmission system that plunges the east coast into darkness for, oh, a week? That event, alone, would cost the US more than the events of 9/11/01, don't you think?

Other financial crisis, e.g., China and the Saudis quit buying our debt?

I'd buy gold, but you can't eat gold. I think I'll plant some more potatoes.

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